The Cardinals are probably not going to make the postseason every year in perpetuity. Compared to the past 20 seasons of Cardinals baseball, one can see how coming to terms with that reality is disheartening. But through the prism of every other baseball team in the world, the Cardinals are in solid shape.
St. Louis doesn’t have an Anthony Rizzo or a Kris Bryant, insofar as Matt Carpenter is older than those players. But one could make the case that the Cardinals have the best starting rotation depth in the Major Leagues. This pitching depth has been a staple of the Cardinals for a couple years now. If no trades are made over the offseason, next year’s roster will include Adam Wainwright, Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha, Jaime Garcia, Mike Leake, and Lance Lynn. In addition to fresh, fun prospects like Alex Reyes and Luke Weaver, the team has guys like Marco Gonzalez and Tim Cooney, who used to be fresh, fun prospects but are currently hurt. They also have Tyler Lyons with his 3.50 career SIERA in MLB, who in many other organizations would be a starter.
That’s a lot of quality arms. Considering the returns we’ve seen this year for pitchers like Matt Moore and Drew Hutchison, it’s easy to imagine the Cardinals making a trade this offseason that adds a difference-making bat.
In his piece yesterday, Chase talked about how it is lame to settle for Mike Leake instead of David Price. And it is indeed lame, but let’s not defame Mike Leake. David Price’s SIERA this season is 3.48. Mike Leake’s is 3.76. Leake has been hurt by bad luck and bad defense; if he were a free agent this season, it’s likely he would be the most coveted pitcher on a bleak market and fetch $100 million. He’s no David Price, but he’s a solid pitcher.
The true reason to be pessimistic is the Cubs are set up to be very good for quite a long time. The 1908 World Series Champions are a moneymaking machine with some of the best young stars in baseball. No franchise is as well constructed as the 2016 Cubs. By Base Runs, the Cubs deserve a record of 72-38 while the Cardinals deserve a record of 66-46. Relative to teams not named the Cubs, though, the Cardinals are as good as anybody. The Nationals (who have some really excellent pitching as well) are the only non-Cubs team in the NL with a better Base Runs record.
The Cardinals lack the spending power of the Cubs or Dodgers—at least in part by the owner’s choice—and the team is likely going to need to spend some money to replace Matt Holliday or Brandon Moss. Bill DeWitt and John Mozeliak’s prudence in the free-agent market is certainly frustrating. Not signing Jason Heyward was infuriating, even if Heyward suddenly forgot how to hit.
But there’s reason for optimism on this front, too, as the Cardinals are on track to continue to field a team similar to this year’s squad with increased payroll liberality. Find a couple dudes who can hit to play first base and left field, and the team is going to have average or better regulars at every position on the field. (Yadier Molina hasn’t been particularly good for three years now, so whoever comes after Yadi probably won’t kill the team.)
There aren’t many teams in baseball with as much going for them as the Cardinals. Replace Matheny, get some breaks, and who knows the Cardinals might even make the playoffs another five straight years. And if not, they are still likely to be better than most.
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